Other voices on climate change

The following Abstract entitled, ‘Solar Influence on Recurring Global, Decadal, Climate Cycles Recorded by
Glacial Fluctuations, Ice Cores, Sea Surface Temperatures, and Historic Measurements Over the Past Millennium’ by Don Easterbrook, is from the American Geophysical Union (AGU) Annual Fall Meeting in San Francisco, 15-19 December 2008:

“GLOBAL, cyclic, decadal, climate patterns can be traced over the past millennium in glacier fluctuations, oxygen isotope ratios in ice cores, sea surface temperatures, and historic observations.  The recurring climate cycles clearly show that natural climatic warming and cooling have occurred many times, long before increases in anthropogenic atmospheric CO2 levels.  The Medieval Warm Period and Little Ice Age are well known examples of such climate changes, but in addition, at least 23 periods of climatic warming and cooling have occurred in the past 500 years. Each period of warming or cooling lasted about 25-30 years (average 27 years).  Two cycles of global warming and two of global cooling have occurred during the past century, and the global cooling that has occurred since 1998 is exactly in phase with the long term pattern.  Global cooling occurred from 1880 to ~1915; global warming occurred from ~1915 to ~1945; global cooling occurred from ~1945-1977;, global warming occurred from 1977 to 1998; and global cooling has occurred since 1998.  All of these global climate changes show exceptionally good correlation with solar variation since the Little Ice Age 400 years ago.

The IPCC predicted global warming of 0.6° C (1° F) by 2011 and 1.2° C (2° F) by 2038, whereas Easterbrook (2001) predicted the beginning of global cooling by 2007 (± 3–5 yrs) and cooling of about 0.3–0.5° C until ~2035.  The predicted cooling seems to have already begun. Recent measurements of global temperatures suggest a gradual cooling trend since 1998 and 2007–2008 was a year of sharp global cooling. The cooling trend will likely continue as the sun enters a cycle of lower irradiance and the Pacific Ocean changed from its warm mode to its cool mode.

Comparisons of historic global climate warming and cooling, glacial fluctuations, changes in warm/cool mode of the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) and the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation (AMO), and sun spot activity over the past century show strong correlations and provide a solid data base for future climate change projections. The announcement by NASA that the Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO) had shifted to its cool phase is right on schedule as predicted by past climate and PDO changes (Easterbrook, 2001, 2006, 2007) and coincides with recent solar variations. The PDO typically lasts 25–30 years, virtually assuring several decades of global cooling.  The IPCC predictions of global temperatures 1° F warmer by 2011,  2° F warmer by 2038, and 10° F by 2100 stand little chance of being correct. “Global warming” (i.e., the warming since 1977) is over.”

Don J Easterbrook is Professor Emeritus at Western Washington University, Dept. of Geology, Bellingham, WA 98225, United States.

I know it’s a tough job – but let’s just check the IPCC’s iconic, widely-quoted conclusion and parse its meaning:

“Most of the observed increase in globally-averaged temperatures since the mid-20th century is very likely due to the observed increase in anthropogenic GHG concentrations.” [IPCC Synthesis Report, SPM, Nov 2007].

How should one interpret this ex cathedra declaration to the faithful? IPCC helpfully defines ‘very likely’ as ‘90-99% certain.’ But they don’t tell us how they reached such well-defined certainty. What remarkable unanimity! Just how many and whom did they poll?

IPCC doesn’t define the word ‘most.’ We may assume it means anything between 51 and 99%. Quite a spread. But a footnote informs us that solar forcing is less than 10% of anthropogenic [0.12/1.6 W/m2]; so ‘most’ must be closer to 99% than to 51%.OK; let’s check out the data since 1958. But we don’t want to rely on contaminated surface data – which IPCC likely used – although they omitted to say so. Atmospheric data were readily available to the IPCC in the CCSP-SAP-1.1 report (Fig 3a, p.54; convening lead author John Lanzante, NOAA), with independent analyses by Hadley Centre and NOAA
that agree well. And further, according to GH models, atmospheric trends should be larger than surface temperature trends.

1958 – 2005: Total warming of +0.5 C – but how much of that is anthropogenic?
1958 - 1976: Cooling
1976 – 1977: Sudden jump of +0.5 C Cannot be due to GHG
1977 – 1997: No detectable trend
1998 - 1999: El Nino spike
2000 – 2001: No detectable trend
2001 – 2003: Sudden jump of +0.3 C Cannot be due to GHG
2003 – present No trend, maybe even slight cooling

Conclusion: The IPCC’s ‘most’ is not sustained by observations; the human contribution is very likely only 10% or even less.

S. Fred Singer: Science & Environmental Policy Project (SEPP)

This is an excellent, short summation of everything that is wrong with “consensus” climate science position. For example:

Myth #1 - Temperatures are warmer today than ever in history.

The truth is we don’t really know. The most popular temperature reconstructions are full of flawed math and data. Others don’t have enough verification to rely on them. Several show global temperatures 1,000 years ago which are much higher than today.

Myth #2 - There is a consensus among climatologists about global warming.

Most climatologists probably agree, but climatology is a small field funded by government organizations. Those who disagree openly, receive little funding but they do still exist. Weathermen, chemists, physicists, foresters, solar experts, engineers and thousands of informed people recognize the issue isn’t settled.

For the full article, click here.